Thame’s lesson for Nepal’s climate future – The Himalayan Times – Nepal’s No.1 English Daily Newspaper

From May 29 to June 3, 2026, I made my thirteenth visit to the Khumbu region since I first travelled there in 2007. The journey took me from Kathmandu to Lukla, then onward through Phakding and Namche Bazaar before reaching Thame, a village that has become an important symbol of the emerging climate threats on the mountain communities of Nepal.

The visit was a part of the Himalayan Climate Charter 2026 in Namche, which was organised by the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee (SPCC) and the Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality. As a panelist on session “Climate Impacts: Research, Innovation, and Response”, I shared findings from years of cryosphere research in the Mount Everest region. Yet the most powerful lesson from the trip came not from the conference hall, but from the landscape itself.

This was my first trip to Thame despite having travelled repeatedly across the Khumbu region over nearly two decades. Until now, I had only observed the devastating August 16, 2024 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) through satellite imagery, scientific reports, and documentaries. Standing in the valley and witnessing the aftermath firsthand was a stark reminder that climate change is no longer an abstract scientific concern. This is a reality in everyday life already changing the lives of the people of the Himalaya.

Evidence of the flood can still be seen. The story of a disaster that spread in a matter of hours, but will have lasting effects for years, is told by the damaged infrastructure, altered river channels and debris cover slopes. Above all, the event highlighted the lack of knowledge, understanding and evaluation of climate hazard in the high mountains of Nepal.

The Thame GLOF was caused by the Thyanbo, or Ngole, glacial lake system located upstream of the settlement. Scientific investigations show that a rockfall, snow avalanche, or ice avalanche entered the upper lake, displacing water which rushed downwards into a second lake. The extra water volume put pressure on the moraine dam of the lower lake, eventually causing its failure and releasing a destructive flood wave into the valley.

The 2024 Thame GLOF evidenced that even low risk glacial lakes can give rise to large-scale disasters via cascades processes, such as avalanches and unstable slopes and moraine failures. The event emphasizes the necessity to shift from lake size-based assessments to more comprehensive assessments of landscape and chain-reaction hazards as part of further GLOF risk assessment.

More than 2000 glacial lakes of various size have been reported from Nepal Himalaya. Over the past four decades, the number of glacial lakes has nearly tripled, while their combined surface area has increased by approximately 25 percent. The Sagarmatha National Park area alone contains approximately 625 small and large lakes. There are also new supraglacial lakes forming on debris covered glaciers, such as the Ngozumpa Glacier, bringing further risks and uncertainties.

Concurrently, glaciers are shrinking at alarming rates. Research shows that glaciers in the Everest region have lost approximately 15 percent of their surface area since the 1960s. Glacier termini have retreated by an average of six metres per year, while glacier mass loss has accelerated significantly since 2000.

Small glaciers are most susceptible. Glaciers less than one square kilometre has receded by over 42 per cent since the 1960s and many are nearing local extinction. Average glacier surface lowering is estimated nearly 4 metres per decade with some glaciers such as Khumbu Glacier losing between 5 and 14 metres per decade.

Changes to the snow regime in the region are also occurring. Recent research shows a reduction in snowfall of almost 20%. Meanwhile, the warmer climate is bringing earlier rains to higher elevations instead of snow. The Regional Snow Line has risen about 180 metres.

The trend has significant consequences for glacier health. A rise in monsoon precipitation was once thought to compensate for glacier retreat, but field observations are increasingly showing that this is not the case. The monsoon is becoming more unpredictable, and with the warmer climate, it is also falling as rain rather than snow. This is not glacier protection, but a promoting of glacier melting and thermal erosion.

The evidence points that the cryosphere of the mountain is changing in a rapid manner. Most significantly, these changes are starting to make themselves felt on people.

There are at least seven high-risk glacial lakes in the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone, such as Imja and Lumding. Across the wider Dudh Koshi Basin, sixteen glacial lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous, including North Chamlang and West Chamlang. Scientific assessments further indicate that the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan region may approach peak GLOF risk around 2050.

The implications for Nepal are significant. Climate risks to hydro infrastructure, tourism facilities, transportation and mountain settlements are becoming more prevalent. Those communities that have contributed little to global greenhouse gas emissions are now on the frontlines of climate impacts.

Yet the message from the Himalayan Climate Charter 2026 was not one of despair. It was a call to action based on science, collaboration, and the engagement with local communities.

First, there is a need to enhance the governance of climate and cryosphere in Nepal. Although scientific knowledge is increasingly growing, research results are dispersed among research institutes and projects. A national research gateway and open access data portal would enhance data access, transparency, and evidence-based policymaking.

Secondly, universities and research institutes need to be linked to the needs of mountain communities. Local governments need practical information to plan and adapt and researchers need local knowledge and community engagement to enhance scientific understanding.

Third, monitoring and early warning systems need to be a national priority. Enhanced hazard monitoring, real-time communication networks and community preparedness initiatives can help to minimize losses in the future.

Fourth, local governments should incorporate climate risk information into their development planning.

Last but not least, scientific information needs to be more accessible. Promote open data portals, translate technical information into local languages, and keep communicating with the community on a regular basis to enable communities to be active stakeholders in adaptation.

The Himalaya are being transformed in our lifetime. Nepal’s high mountains, characterised by glaciers, snow fields and glacial lakes, are showing very rapid response to climate change. Precipitation regimes, sublimation processes and the interaction of glaciers with lakes are still not well understood, but the overall trend is clear.

The trip to Thame reinforced a reality that scientists, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and communities increasingly recognise: The cryosphere is changing and these effects are no longer restricted to remote mountain landscapes. They are starting to shape the livelihoods, infrastructure and development decisions in Nepal.

The 2024 GLOF should not only be a reminder of a past disaster, but also a catalyst for change and adaptation. They ought to be a cautionary tale for the future. The lessons that Nepal can draw from Thame and the actions it takes on them will decide the fate of how the country fares in the future climate challenges.

Dr. Thakuri is an Associate Professor of Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Environmental Science, Kirtipur, Nepal.